First-tier cities' housing prices have now stopped rising and the property market has remained unchanged

The “restricted purchase order” has been upgraded, highlighting the regulatory determination that “second and third tier cities with excessively fast house prices must also take necessary measures to limit purchases.” The State Council’s executive meeting at mid-July sent this news, clearly demonstrating that the central government regulates real estate. The attitude - not only will not relax, will continue to increase.

“Limiting Purchase Order” is the quickest and most effective measure since the current round of real estate regulation. Since the beginning of the implementation of purchase restrictions in some cities earlier this year, there has been no rebound in the real estate market transactions in these cities and there has been a clear downward trend in housing prices. In this case, a large amount of purchase funds has flooded into the second and third tier cities, causing the price premiums of some second- and third-tier cities to rise too fast, triggering an “order-purchase order” upgrade.

Which second and third-tier cities will be restricted? The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development recently issued a notice requesting the provinces to report on the regulation of the real estate market in the first half of the year in the cities under their respective jurisdictions, and proposed five proposed standards for the newly-restricted cities. In June, the new housing price index of the National Bureau of Statistics increased year-on-year or the new housing price index from January to June increased month by month, ranking higher than the previous month; the average price of newly built commodity housing in June was higher than or close to the end of last year. Target; Newly-increased commodity housing transaction volume increased from January to June year-on-year; Located in the periphery of the central city where the purchase has been restricted, and the proportion of buyers from other places is high; There are outstanding issues such as excessive price increases and imperfect control policies. Social reflection Strong.

The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development has proposed that cities that meet the above conditions, that is, two or more cities, are proposed to be included in the list of newly-restricted cities. Based on these criteria, industry analysts generally believe that 30 or so cities will be included in the new purchase restriction list, and that the excessively rapid price increase in these cities will be effectively contained.

Zhang Dawei, director of Beijing Zhongyuan Real Estate Market Research Department, believes that sales area and operating performance of real estate companies have generally declined in the first half of this year, and those with better sales performance mostly rely on second and third tier cities to support sales. Once the second and third-tier cities begin to purchase, it will directly lead to a significant reduction in the sales of the property market. For real estate companies, the difficulty of returning funds will be further increased, and the incentive for overall price reduction promotions will be even stronger.

“The restriction on the spread to second- and third-tier cities will not directly affect the first-tier cities, but it will have a great psychological impact on buyers, especially those buyers who think the market adjustment will not be too large, they will realize that this round of property market regulation The intensity will be longer than expected, and the impact on the market will be greater than expected.” Zhang Dawei said that due to this expectation, wait-and-see mood will once again escalate.

Zhu Zhongyi, vice president of the China Real Estate Association, believes that the extension of the scope of purchase to the second and third tier cities is a concretization and continuation of the original control policy, and reflects the country’s determination to persist in real estate regulation in the end. It is also necessary to urge some local governments to consciously agree with the spirit of the central government policy. Do not start to shake the real estate market because it has affected the development of the local economy. This will promote the healthy and stable development of the real estate market.

The existing policies are strictly implemented, and the effect of regulation and control will become more apparent. With the persistence, deepening, and continuous strengthening of the regulation of the property market, the effect will gradually emerge. The data released by the National Bureau of Statistics shows that in July of this year, the prices of 70 large and medium-sized cities fell and remained flat in 31 cities, nearly half of the total, and some of the first-tier cities’ housing prices stopped rising.

The first-tier cities with the greatest level of regulation and control are more effective. Take Beijing as an example. According to statistics, in the middle and early August, the average transaction price of the Beijing property market was 21,131 yuan per square meter, down by 3% from 21,788 yuan per square meter in the most recent half year. The volume hit a record low since January 2009. Apart from special rooms and preferential rooms, the proportion of direct price reductions has gradually increased.

At the same time as the restriction policy spreads to the second and third tier cities, will there be more new regulation policies introduced? The industry generally believes that the key to the regulation of the current property market is not to continue to overweight, but to implement existing policies well.

The reporter learned that the control policies centered on restrictions on purchases and differentiated credit policies are better implemented in first-tier cities, but in some second and third-tier cities, certain policies are still not implemented strictly. The China Banking Regulatory Commission recently reaffirmed its policy on third-home mortgage loans: For areas with high commodity housing prices, rapid growth, and tight supply, the suspension of the issuance of third- and more-housing loans. At the same time, the banking financial institutions are required to consistently implement the regulatory requirements for land reserve loans, developer loans, and individual housing loans, strictly implement the "list style" management of real estate development companies, and eliminate the inflow of various credit funds into the real estate market.

On the other hand, due to the downturn in the property market, the phenomenon of land flow auctions or bottom-price transactions has significantly increased. The small and medium-sized developers with poor qualifications and management have already faced the risk of capital chain fracture. In this case, the bank will further reduce real estate credit for the need of risk control.

In addition, financing channels such as stock refinancing, overseas financing and real estate trusts are also narrowing. As a whole, the capital chain of real estate companies has been further contained.

The transaction volume is still sluggish and the capital chain is tight. Under such circumstances, the property market is about to usher in the traditional sales season “Jin 9 Silver 10”, and the market supply will increase substantially. The competitive pressure on developers is also increasing. More developers Will choose to lower prices, the effect of regulation will be further manifested.

In spite of this, the situation of excessively high house prices has still not changed significantly. The effect of regulation and control is still far behind the requirements of the people. Zhu Zhongyi believes that the central government's control of the real estate market will not be relaxed. There are three reasons for this: First, the state must curb speculative and investment demand in order to meet the basic living needs of the people; second is the current housing prices in many cities. Still at a high level, it is incompatible with the affordability of most buyers. Third, large-scale affordable housing projects started this year can largely offset the volatility of investment in commercial housing, and the country is also actively adjusting economic development patterns and reducing the economy. Develop dependence on the real estate industry.

Institutional reforms started to promote long-term stability in the market. At the beginning of August, Beijing’s first “Limited Land Price Competition” plot was listed. In the future, Beijing commercial housing will add a new way of land sales, that is, land prices are pre-determined, and then set a maximum price for future sales, developers based on this, who reported the low price will eventually take the land.

The executive meeting of the State Council held earlier pointed out that it is necessary to "promote the transformation of supply of commercial housing land from price-oriented to two-way pricing and the allocation of affordable housing." The so-called two-way pricing is government pricing and market pricing. Commercial houses were previously market-priced. Now that we have to control house prices, the government must also have a guide price to establish a reasonable price in combination with market prices. Can not completely turn land and commercial housing developers to market operations, there must be a controlled land income and real estate prices in order to truly inhibit the housing price.

Since the beginning of this round of regulation and control, the regulation and control policies have been continuously introduced, but the system reform related to the long-term stable development of the real estate market has been relatively small. Limit purchases and interest rate hikes have depressed the demand for a large number of rigid purchases, and this part of the rigid demand in wait-and-see status is very strong. As the stock market continues to slump and lack other investment channels, investment demand may return to the property market at any time. Once the regulation is relaxed, it will inevitably face a retaliatory rebound in house prices. While insisting that regulation and control are not relaxed and that the existing regulatory policies are being implemented, the key is to use the time when the current market is stable and accelerate the initiation of system reforms.

In recent days, in addition to the land auction system, information on reforms such as the expansion of real estate taxation pilots has continued to spread, allowing people to see the long-term stability of the market.

Jia Kang, director of the Institute of Fiscal Science of the Ministry of Finance, stated that the administrative measures of regulation are only transitional, and that reforms such as real estate taxation are the most important factors affecting real estate in the long run. Property tax can support long-term sustainable and healthy development of the real estate industry, suppress the real estate bubble, and make its positive effects better contribute to the overall situation of the national economy. At the same time, it is also a tool that must be used to optimize the income distribution structure and curb polarization. The regulation of real estate should address both the symptoms and root causes, and the distribution of income must effectively contain the widening of differences. Property tax reform is necessary.

With regard to financial reforms, real estate investment trusts (REITs), as a new type of real estate investment vehicle, have received increasing attention in recent years. Meng Xiaosu, chairman of the China Fang Group, believes that financial innovation can effectively promote the reform of China's real estate system. "REITs are a good time to launch in China, especially in the rental-type affordable housing market. REITs will be a new force."

Qin Hong, deputy director of the Policy Research Center of the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, said that the operation of the real estate fund is very worthy of attention. “At this stage of tightening bank credit, the operability of real estate funds is very important. Only by accelerating financial reform can the real estate industry get rid of the status quo of over-reliance on credit funds and development instability.”

Zhu Zhongyi pointed out that the current real estate market regulation has entered a critical stage, and the top-level design in several major areas is particularly important. One of them is the technical improvement of the real estate holding tax in the areas of assessment and census. In addition, the system of land acquisition, auction, and the redistribution of power and financial power of the central and local governments will all be considered as a mid- to long-term system.

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